我国电煤采购(gou)招标费用指數（CECI）事业编制办公室分(fen)(fen)享的《CECI系(xi)数(shu)(shu)讲(jiang)解周报》（2025年第21期(qi)）屏幕上(shang)显示，CECI沿海城市系(xi)数(shu)(shu)中(zhong)高烧不(bu)退值煤种外(wai)盘(pan)平台(tai)购(gou)买市场报价(jia)较前一期(qi)大(da)致差(cha)不(bu)多，急(ji)剧(ju)变(bian)(bian)低。曹(cao)妃甸系(xi)数(shu)(shu)大(da)致持(chi)稳，低热值煤种小范围持(chi)续保持(chi)上(shang)涨(zhang)。出口(kou)系(xi)数(shu)(shu)外(wai)盘(pan)平台(tai)购(gou)买价(jia)持(chi)续保持(chi)变(bian)(bian)低，增长幅度(du)急(ji)剧(ju)走弱。CECI采购(gou)管(guan)(guan)理主管(guan)(guan)人是(shi)陆续2期(qi)是(shi)抽(chou)缩时(shi)间(jian)(jian)间(jian)(jian)隔(ge)后(hou)回升至增大(da)时(shi)间(jian)(jian)间(jian)(jian)隔(ge)，分(fen)(fen)部分(fen)(fen)项(xiang)系(xi)数(shu)(shu)中(zhong)，供应(ying)者、业务需求和销量(liang)管(guan)(guan)理分(fen)(fen)系(xi)数(shu)(shu)是(shi)增大(da)时(shi)间(jian)(jian)间(jian)(jian)隔(ge)，市场报价(jia)和海运分(fen)(fen)系(xi)数(shu)(shu)是(shi)抽(chou)缩时(shi)间(jian)(jian)间(jian)(jian)隔(ge)，除销量(liang)管(guan)(guan)理分(fen)(fen)系(xi)数(shu)(shu)同比回升外(wai)，其他(ta)分(fen)(fen)系(xi)数(shu)(shu)均同比变(bian)(bian)低。

一、市场情况综述

烧(shao)煤(mei)(mei)热(re)火电(dian)(dian)(dian)站生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)产的个方面，最(zui)近热(re)火电(dian)(dian)(dian)站发(fa)(fa)(fa)剩(sheng)余电(dian)(dian)(dian)池储(chu)(chu)电(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)和耗煤(mei)(mei)量(liang)(liang)去(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)持(chi)(chi)(chi)续(xu)(xu)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)均升幅持(chi)(chi)(chi)续(xu)(xu)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)，大(da)部分以华(hua)北(bei)、北(bei)方、华(hua)南区域(yu)划分持(chi)(chi)(chi)续(xu)(xu)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)非常看不出。热(re)火电(dian)(dian)(dian)站存煤(mei)(mei)有(you)点下(xia)跌(die)。给出中电(dian)(dian)(dian)联电(dian)(dian)(dian)缆制(zhi)(zhi)造行(xing)业能源总(zong)计显(xian)视数(shu)据总(zong)计显(xian)视，最(zui)近（6月(yue)6日(ri)(ri)至6月(yue)12日(ri)(ri)，下(xia)求(qiu)），划为(wei)总(zong)计显(xian)视的烧(shao)煤(mei)(mei)来发(fa)(fa)(fa)电(dian)(dian)(dian)池储(chu)(chu)电(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)公司企业每(mei)(mei)日(ri)(ri)发(fa)(fa)(fa)剩(sheng)余电(dian)(dian)(dian)池储(chu)(chu)电(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)去(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)持(chi)(chi)(chi)续(xu)(xu)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)（的5月(yue)30日(ri)(ri)至6月(yue)5日(ri)(ri)，下(xia)求(qiu)）持(chi)(chi)(chi)续(xu)(xu)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)25.8%，去(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)持(chi)(chi)(chi)续(xu)(xu)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)6.3%；每(mei)(mei)日(ri)(ri)集中供(gong)暖量(liang)(liang)去(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)持(chi)(chi)(chi)续(xu)(xu)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)持(chi)(chi)(chi)续(xu)(xu)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)4.4%，去(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)持(chi)(chi)(chi)续(xu)(xu)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)5.6%。在这中仅，海路(lu)搬运(yun)热(re)火电(dian)(dian)(dian)站每(mei)(mei)日(ri)(ri)发(fa)(fa)(fa)剩(sheng)余电(dian)(dian)(dian)池储(chu)(chu)电(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)去(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)持(chi)(chi)(chi)续(xu)(xu)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)持(chi)(chi)(chi)续(xu)(xu)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)28.7%，去(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)持(chi)(chi)(chi)续(xu)(xu)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)21.9%；每(mei)(mei)日(ri)(ri)集中供(gong)暖量(liang)(liang)去(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)持(chi)(chi)(chi)续(xu)(xu)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)持(chi)(chi)(chi)续(xu)(xu)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)5.7%，去(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)限制(zhi)(zhi)2.2%。来发(fa)(fa)(fa)电(dian)(dian)(dian)池储(chu)(chu)电(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)公司企业焦炭库(ku)存积压117320万吨，较6月(yue)5日(ri)(ri)限制(zhi)(zhi)32万吨。在这中仅海路(lu)搬运(yun)热(re)火电(dian)(dian)(dian)站每(mei)(mei)日(ri)(ri)耗煤(mei)(mei)量(liang)(liang)去(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)持(chi)(chi)(chi)续(xu)(xu)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)持(chi)(chi)(chi)续(xu)(xu)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)25.8%，去(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)持(chi)(chi)(chi)续(xu)(xu)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)17.6%；每(mei)(mei)日(ri)(ri)入(ru)厂煤(mei)(mei)量(liang)(liang)去(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)持(chi)(chi)(chi)续(xu)(xu)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)持(chi)(chi)(chi)续(xu)(xu)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)3.5%，去(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)持(chi)(chi)(chi)续(xu)(xu)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)11.9%。

图1  燃煤电厂周均发电量走势图

图2  燃煤电厂电煤库存走势图

国(guo)外(wai)山(shan)(shan)(shan)西媒碳(tan)主生(sheng)产(chan)(chan)址(zhi)(zhi)的(de)(de)方便，上周国(guo)外(wai)重要山(shan)(shan)(shan)西媒碳(tan)生(sheng)产(chan)(chan)址(zhi)(zhi)领(ling)域(yu)的(de)(de)特(te)(te)征(zheng)(zheng)“出(chu)(chu)现(xian)(xian)了微降、仓库(ku)(ku)超高压、收费(fei)相(xiang)持(chi)”的(de)(de)显(xian)著特(te)(te)点(dian)，一体(ti)化仍(reng)(reng)发生(sheng)“弱(ruo)和平(ping)性下的(de)(de)多(duo)(duo)空(kong)混合策略”的(de)(de)状况(kuang)。从销(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)量端看，受可靠常规检查趋严、环(huan)境保(bao)护去产(chan)(chan)量政策文件出(chu)(chu)台及(ji)部门(men)矿(kuang)(kuang)山(shan)(shan)(shan)业(ye)(ye)常规性维保(bao)等最大(da)多(duo)(duo)要素引响(xiang)，主生(sheng)产(chan)(chan)址(zhi)(zhi)部门(men)矿(kuang)(kuang)山(shan)(shan)(shan)业(ye)(ye)每日出(chu)(chu)现(xian)(xian)了出(chu)(chu)现(xian)(xian)了小范围(wei)收拢，但(dan)主要依靠后期(qi)产(chan)(chan)量放(fang)(fang)出(chu)(chu)的(de)(de)支撑(cheng)点(dian)，一体(ti)化山(shan)(shan)(shan)西媒碳(tan)销(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)量仍(reng)(reng)增加(jia)最大(da)多(duo)(duo)安全。意(yi)愿端的(de)(de)特(te)(te)征(zheng)(zheng)则显(xian)阴茎(jing)疲(pi)软(ruan)，销(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)量终端手机(ji)用户拉运积(ji)极行动性重视缺陷，以(yi)对现(xian)(xian)长协合作合同相(xiang)结合，领(ling)域(yu)煤(mei)意(yi)愿放(fang)(fang)出(chu)(chu)较少，从而导(dao)致采(cai)矿(kuang)(kuang)区仓库(ku)(ku)继续(xu)持(chi)续(xu)增长。收费(fei)的(de)(de)方便，部分(fen)差异性显(xian)著特(te)(te)点(dian)特(te)(te)别。大(da)部分(fen)矿(kuang)(kuang)山(shan)(shan)(shan)业(ye)(ye)因产(chan)(chan)销(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)量最大(da)多(duo)(duo)和平(ping)性，收费(fei)保(bao)护安全，领(ling)域(yu)采(cai)取交易分(fen)为较后期(qi)也随之(zhi)转暖；仅个别矿(kuang)(kuang)山(shan)(shan)(shan)业(ye)(ye)依照身(shen)体(ti)销(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)量状况(kuang)，对实际情况(kuang)平(ping)均价收费(fei)采(cai)取窄幅(fu)修整，小幅(fu)度汇(hui)集在2-5元(yuan)/吨，一体(ti)化收费(fei)的(de)(de)特(te)(te)征(zheng)(zheng)“相(xiang)持(chi)难(nan)涨”新形(xing)势。

口岸市(shi)场多方面，每(mei)日(ri)全球传统(tong)的煤炭市(shi)场交(jiao)易量(liang)(liang)(liang)继承(cheng)减退趋(qu)势分(fen)析，但去(qu)库的动力突出欠佳，堆砌(qi)煤种框架性资源贫(pin)乏(fa)的问题，市(shi)场产(chan)品报价产(chan)生 分(fen)解(jie)近期走勢。交(jiao)易量(liang)(liang)(liang)量(liang)(liang)(liang)定(ding)期保持(chi)减退，去(qu)库音乐节奏定(ding)期下滑，且所选(xuan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)仍处时间例数上升楔形，江(jiang)内、火电厂(chang)等(deng)原则交(jiao)易量(liang)(liang)(liang)高企，市(shi)场布局供需肥大格式(shi)未改。期货产(chan)品报价分(fen)解(jie)急剧(ju)，多少卡(ka)煤近期走勢背(bei)驰。因化(hua)工新(xin)材(cai)料、家装(zhuang)建材(cai)等(deng)非电市(shi)场购房者支撑(cheng)点，堆砌(qi)口岸运(yun)通量(liang)(liang)(liang)定(ding)期保持(chi)内缩，低硫低卡(ka)煤相(xiang)对来说收窄，组成部分(fen)商(shang)贸商(shang)挺价自我(wo)价值改善，低硫煤升值成交(jiao)价情况暴增；5500大卡(ka)及上的高卡(ka)煤受电煤供需乏(fa)力及出口格特色(se)撞击，卖场交投与众不同，价(jia)格多少缺失承受。

结合来谈，现行市場呈(cheng)“制造地紧(jin)缩(suo)、高库克(ke)制、进(jin)口(kou)货差异(yi)性”设计。焦炭(tan)供求关系弱平稳与机构性需(xu)求同(tong)存，高货源(yuan)及保洁新能源(yuan)改用(yong)用(yong)增(zeng)加，报价震荡率进(jin)两步趋缓。

二、CECI指数分析

CECI沿海指数5500千卡/千克、5000千卡/千克现货成交价较上期均降低1元/吨。从样本情况看，5500千卡/千克、5000千卡/千克规格品现货成交价样本价格区间分别为611-616元/吨、534-536元/吨。从样本热值分布看，5500千卡/千克、5000千卡/千克、4500千卡/千克样本在总量中占比分别为28.3％、49.8％、21.9％。

图3  CECI沿海指数综合价走势图

CECI曹妃甸指数5500千卡/千克、5000千卡/千克和4500千卡/千克平均价格分别为616元/吨、535元/吨和469.6元/吨，分别比上期平均价格上涨0元/吨、0元/吨和1.6元/吨。从样本情况看，本期曹妃甸指数日均现货交易平均数量较上期小幅减少，其中5500千卡/千克、5000千卡/千克样本数量略有减少，4500千卡/千克样本数量略有增加。

图4  CECI曹妃甸指数走势图

CECI进口指数本期CECI进口指数到岸标煤单价743元/吨，较上期下降13元/吨，环比下降1.7%。本期各煤种采购价格均有不同程度下降，其中太仓港（灵便型）3200千卡/千克价格环比下降14元/吨，广州港（巴拿马型）5500千卡/千克价格环比下降14元/吨。本周，中国及印度采购需求低迷，印尼低卡煤（3800大卡）价格持续承压，创近两年新低。矿方套利空间几近消失，但在库存压力下降价出货。澳洲煤价结构性反弹，受洪水影响装期延迟，港口作业完全恢复需至7月中下旬，澳洲5500大卡煤供应短期收紧，实际成交价暂稳。俄罗斯煤出口流向结构性调整，波罗的海港口发运量增加，远东港口减少，俄煤加速流向土耳其等替代市场。内贸煤企稳后，进口煤优势显现，但仍高于国内终端心理预期，实际成交活跃度不高。

表1  CECI进口指数

CECI采购经理人指数在连续2期处于收缩区间后上升至扩张区间。其中，供给分指数处于扩张区间，表明电煤供给量由降转增。需求分指数处于扩张区间，表明电煤需求量开始增加。库存分指数连续10期处于扩张区间，表明电煤库存量继续增加，增幅有所收窄。价格分指数连续19期处于收缩区间，表明电煤价格继续下降，降幅有所收窄。航运分指数连续3期处于收缩区间，表明电煤航运价格继续下降，降幅有所收窄。

表2  CECI采购经理人指数

三、相关信息和建议

按照财(cai)政部(bu)(bu)一(yi)级公(gong)路(lu)运输保通保畅的工作(zuo)干部(bu)(bu)班组会议室室评(ping)估统计统计数据，6月2日(ri)-6月8日(ri)，全(quan)省物流公(gong)司公(gong)司一(yi)级公(gong)路(lu)运输井然有序执(zhi)行(xing)，这里面：我国高速(su)收(shou)费(fei)(fei)站铁路(lu)当年(nian)度额一(yi)级公(gong)路(lu)运输运输763五万(wan)吨，同比增长下滑1.71%；全(quan)省高速(su)收(shou)费(fei)(fei)站一(yi)级公(gong)路(lu)当年(nian)度额小货车(che)进入5200.4万(wan)辆，同比增长下滑0.01%。

中(zhong)(zhong)间气象条件(jian)台(tai)开展，近期(qi)内台(tai)风天(tian)鸽“蝴(hu)碟”的影响(xiang)华(hua)(hua)(hua)东(dong)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)春江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)等(deng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)，江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)铃汽(qi)车汽(qi)车黄淮等(deng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)将有强降(jiang)雪(xue)进程。6月(yue)13日-22日，主要的降(jiang)雪(xue)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)形(xing)气候(hou)(hou)于(yu)江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)汉、黄淮、江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)铃汽(qi)车汽(qi)车、春江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)、华(hua)(hua)(hua)东(dong)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)、华(hua)(hua)(hua)北(bei)方(fang)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)、川藏线(xian)黑(hei)(hei)龙江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)部(bu)等(deng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)，加(jia)权平均降(jiang)雪(xue)量(liang)(liang)60-120直(zhi)径(jing)，部(bu)位地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)加(jia)权平均降(jiang)雨(yu)(yu)量(liang)(liang)量(liang)(liang)150-200直(zhi)径(jing)，局地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)以上250直(zhi)径(jing)。还，全疆东(dong)西部(bu)、黑(hei)(hei)龙江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)黑(hei)(hei)龙江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)部(bu)、华(hua)(hua)(hua)北(bei)区区区、黑(hei)(hei)龙江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)、宁夏族古(gu)中(zhong)(zhong)黑(hei)(hei)龙江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)部(bu)等(deng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)加(jia)权平均降(jiang)雨(yu)(yu)量(liang)(liang)量(liang)(liang)20-50直(zhi)径(jing)，华(hua)(hua)(hua)北(bei)区区区黑(hei)(hei)龙江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)部(bu)、黑(hei)(hei)龙江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)、宁夏族古(gu)中(zhong)(zhong)黑(hei)(hei)龙江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)部(bu)局地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)以上80直(zhi)径(jing)。与经常减幅优(you)于(yu)，江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)汉、江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)铃汽(qi)车汽(qi)车、黄淮、华(hua)(hua)(hua)北(bei)区区区、黑(hei)(hei)龙江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)北(bei)部(bu)、宁夏族古(gu)中(zhong)(zhong)黑(hei)(hei)龙江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)部(bu)及华(hua)(hua)(hua)东(dong)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)黑(hei)(hei)龙江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)部(bu)、华(hua)(hua)(hua)北(bei)方(fang)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)等(deng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)降(jiang)雨(yu)(yu)量(liang)(liang)量(liang)(liang)偏(pian)多2-6成，局地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)偏(pian)多1-2倍。平均气候(hou)(hou)多方(fang)面(mian)，6月(yue)下半个月(yue)左右，我國大部(bu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)平均气候(hou)(hou)将更加(jia)接近经常减幅到(dao)较为(wei)增(zeng)高标准。

海关(guan)网总署(shu)宣布(bu)数据统(tong)计(ji)体现 ，2025年8月份各(ge)(ge)省進口(kou)中(zhong)国中(zhong)国煤炭3604亿立(li)(li)方米，相比(bi)可(ke)以减掉777.6亿立(li)(li)方米，增(zeng)涨17.7%；月环比(bi)可(ke)以减掉178.5亿立(li)(li)方米，增(zeng)涨4.7%。2025年1-8月份，各(ge)(ge)省共進口(kou)中(zhong)国中(zhong)国煤炭18867.1亿立(li)(li)方米，相比(bi)增(zeng)涨7.9%；积攒進口(kou)累计(ji)额1468260万(wan)美金，相比(bi)增(zeng)涨29.5%。

会(hui)根据(ju)中电(dian)联电(dian)力(li)设(she)备(bei)服务行业(ye)能源(yuan)(yuan)计算(suan)，当(dang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)度6月12日，编(bian)入计算(suan)的电(dian)站国际公司烧煤(mei)(mei)水(shui)水(shui)泥(ni)厂上个月当(dang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)度电(dian)站量减幅(fu)(fu)(fu)相(xiang)比上升(sheng)(sheng)0.3%，年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)初当(dang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)度电(dian)站量减幅(fu)(fu)(fu)相(xiang)比上升(sheng)(sheng)5.8%。烧煤(mei)(mei)水(shui)水(shui)泥(ni)厂耗煤(mei)(mei)量上个月当(dang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)度减幅(fu)(fu)(fu)相(xiang)比上升(sheng)(sheng)2.5%，年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)初当(dang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)度减幅(fu)(fu)(fu)相(xiang)比上升(sheng)(sheng)6%。烧煤(mei)(mei)水(shui)水(shui)泥(ni)厂传统的煤(mei)(mei)炭货(huo)源(yuan)(yuan)远远超出上一(yi)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)减幅(fu)(fu)(fu)615万吨，货(huo)源(yuan)(yuan)快速可用(yong)日期较本(ben)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)减幅(fu)(fu)(fu)提(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)0.6天。

本周，国内煤炭市场延续“弱平衡”主基调，产地库存压力未解、港口去库动能减弱，叠加结构性矛盾与价格分化特征，市场多空因素交织显现。短期来看，水电等清洁能源替代效应持续，叠加港口去库趋缓，煤价反弹空间有限；但非电刚需与进口倒挂或将继续支撑低卡煤价格，市场或将延续“总量宽松、结构紧缺”的弱平衡格局。综合判断，预计近期动力煤价格以弱稳为主。建议重点关注近期高温、降雨天气对用电需求和发电结构的影响情况，根据实际需求优化库存结构，确保迎峰度夏电煤供应安全。